I had the pleasure of attending the Australian Property Institute Annual Industry breakfast recently.

With a panel of industry experts forensically examining the 2025 WA residential property outlook, it was an interesting event analysing the data and crystal ball gazing at Perth’s residential property future.

The future hinges on cyclical change versus structural change.

Cyclical change we understand all too well in the state of WA, with the mining cycles the defining factor historically, as our residential housing market has waxed and waned.

Structural change will be the defining factor as to whether we suffer declining property values.

If the cost of building can come down, if the time it takes to build can compress, then we will see the supply of cheaper new homes begin to undermine the price of established homes.

Unfortunately nobody  thinks this is going to happen.

The reality is likely that this constrained supply of new homes is the new normal.

With a critical mass of people having come to WA over the last 2 years our population has reached approximately 3 million people. 

Combined with the inability to materialise cheap new housing stock, and we have a problem.

Yes we are slowing (finally), faced with a median selling time starting to move beyond 10 days. Stock levels are climbing ever so slowly and price growth for Perth metro last month was a level headed 0.3%.

Consensus opinion was that near full employment in WA and the banks’ appetite to keep lending money in an environment of potential future rate cuts, are all unlikely to do anything except contribute to the upward price pressure.

Hang on for the ride!

Derek Baston